Preliminary results from the anlysis of wind component error

Description:

Estimation of mean square prediction error of wind components is required in the optimal interpolation (OI) process in numerical prediction of atmospheric variables. Statistical models with log-linear scale parameters which include covariates are described for the prediction error. Data from February April and July of 1991 are used to fit the model parameters and to study the predictive ability of the models. This preliminary investigation indicates that observational and first guess wind components can be helpful in predicting mean square prediction error for wind components. The predictions using observational winds appear to be better at the 850 mb level. The predictions using first guess winds appear to be better at the 250 mb level.

subjects: WIND,  MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION,  WEATHER FORECASTING